Track record
Every time UAP suggests a trade it opens a tracked thesis and watches the candles that follow. No money moves — this is a paper check on what the calls actually did. A thesis runs with no time limit until it hits its target (made it) or a big opposite shift invalidates it — the engine flipping to a strong opposite signal, or price blowing through a wide multiple of its risk. The headline figures cover high-conviction theses only (score 60+); the Score vs outcome table further down shows every band.
The average unrealised move across all open theses — equal-weighted, no leverage. The summed figure adds every thesis's percentage together: it answers “what if the whole pot went into each trade in turn?”, and it grows just by opening more trades — so it is kept off the headline. Paper only; no real position exists.
Top earners
liveOutcome breakdown
Paper performance
- Profit captured
- +4212.6%
- Given back
- -4617.6%
- Net result
- -405.0%
- Average per trade
- -0.91%
- Best / worst
- +67.2% / -63.2%
- Upside left on the table
- +3082.6%
“Upside left on the table” is favourable movement a thesis reached but didn't capture. Assumes fills exactly at the advised target or invalidation level, no fees or slippage.
Top results
Score vs outcome
The live test of whether a higher score means a better trade — every thesis grouped by its score at advice time. Backtests pointed to the edge living in the 60+ setups; this is the honest, forward version, free of hindsight. It only means something once each bucket holds a decent number of resolved theses, so give it time to fill.
| Score | Tracked | Open | Hit target | Shifted | Hit rate | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 60 | 1541 | 63 | 618 | 860 | 42% | +350.7% |
| 60–65 | 322 | 13 | 121 | 188 | 39% | -82.8% |
| 65–70 | 111 | 0 | 43 | 68 | 39% | -310.8% |
| 70+ | 26 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 36% | -11.4% |
By market
| Market | Tracked | Open | Hit target | Shifted | Hit rate | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crypto | 459 | 14 | 173 | 272 | 39% | -405.0% |
Daily activity
UTC days| Day | Book move | Opened | Resolved | Hit | Shifted | Win rate | Realised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | -7.7% | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -26.9% |
| 2026-11-08 | +223.9% | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | -13.7% |
| 2026-11-07 | +91.4% | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | +12.3% |
| 2026-11-06 | -171.9% | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-11-05 | +299.5% | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | -19.6% |
| 2026-11-04 | -90.6% | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | 100% | +2.5% |
| 2026-11-03 | -9.0% | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | +7.8% |
| 2026-11-02 | +168.7% | 2 | 3 | — | 3 | 0% | -60.6% |
| 2026-11-01 | +11.9% | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | -11.4% |
| 2026-10-31 | +1.4% | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -26.3% |
| 2026-10-30 | -163.3% | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | +8.5% |
| 2026-10-29 | +216.6% | 6 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31% | -79.4% |
| 2026-10-28 | -51.5% | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0% | -18.3% |
| 2026-10-27 | -56.5% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -9.0% |
| 2026-10-26 | +23.0% | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | -6.7% |
| 2026-10-25 | +119.5% | 7 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | -76.1% |
| 2026-10-24 | -37.3% | 4 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 55% | +57.4% |
| 2026-10-23 | +84.0% | 2 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-10-22 | +191.3% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | +7.7% |
| 2026-10-21 | -23.1% | 2 | 2 | — | 2 | 0% | -31.9% |
| 2026-10-20 | -92.6% | — | 1 | 1 | — | 100% | +26.3% |
| 2026-10-19 | +73.9% | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 100% | +28.7% |
| 2026-10-18 | +52.5% | — | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | -86.5% |
| 2026-10-17 | +144.8% | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | -71.0% |
| 2026-10-16 | +60.9% | 3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-10-15 | -68.6% | 5 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | -101.1% |
| 2026-10-14 | -30.9% | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -18.7% |
| 2026-10-13 | -24.4% | 8 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | -54.5% |
| 2026-10-12 | -168.7% | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | +12.1% |
| 2026-10-11 | -0.1% | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | +71.1% |