Track record
Every time UAP suggests a trade it opens a tracked thesis and watches the candles that follow. No money moves — this is a paper check on what the calls actually did. A thesis runs with no time limit until it hits its target (made it) or a big opposite shift invalidates it — the engine flipping to a strong opposite signal, or price blowing through a wide multiple of its risk. The headline figures cover high-conviction theses only (score 60+); the Score vs outcome table further down shows every band.
The average unrealised move across all open theses — equal-weighted, no leverage. The summed figure adds every thesis's percentage together: it answers “what if the whole pot went into each trade in turn?”, and it grows just by opening more trades — so it is kept off the headline. Paper only; no real position exists.
Top earners
liveOutcome breakdown
Paper performance
- Profit captured
- +2903.2%
- Given back
- -3074.7%
- Net result
- -171.5%
- Average per trade
- -0.52%
- Best / worst
- +67.2% / -54.2%
- Upside left on the table
- +1787.8%
“Upside left on the table” is favourable movement a thesis reached but didn't capture. Assumes fills exactly at the advised target or invalidation level, no fees or slippage.
Top results
Risk gate scorecard
The AI checks the news before each thesis opens, but it only ever labels — it never blocks a trade. That means every label gets tested. If flagged trades really do hit target less often than clear ones, the check is earning its keep. If the hit rates match, it is noise.
| Verdict | Tracked | Open | Hit target | Shifted | Hit rate | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| News clear | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -15.3% |
| News caution | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 33% | -27.2% |
| News conflict | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | +0.0% |
Score vs outcome
The live test of whether a higher score means a better trade — every thesis grouped by its score at advice time. Backtests pointed to the edge living in the 60+ setups; this is the honest, forward version, free of hindsight. It only means something once each bucket holds a decent number of resolved theses, so give it time to fill.
| Score | Tracked | Open | Hit target | Shifted | Hit rate | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 60 | 1081 | 92 | 346 | 643 | 35% | -863.1% |
| 60–65 | 230 | 11 | 81 | 138 | 37% | -167.4% |
| 65–70 | 86 | 6 | 29 | 51 | 36% | -179.6% |
| 70+ | 32 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 50% | +175.5% |
By market
| Market | Tracked | Open | Hit target | Shifted | Hit rate | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crypto | 348 | 17 | 126 | 205 | 38% | -171.5% |
Daily activity
UTC days| Day | Book move | Opened | Resolved | Hit | Shifted | Win rate | Realised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | +12.2% | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | -34.1% |
| 2026-09-10 | -80.6% | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | -24.1% |
| 2026-09-09 | +20.6% | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | +69.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | -14.0% | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -13.1% |
| 2026-09-07 | -55.2% | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | +30.7% | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0% | -8.2% |
| 2026-09-05 | -8.4% | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0% | -12.8% |
| 2026-09-04 | -18.6% | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-03 | +136.2% | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | -12.7% |
| 2026-09-02 | -22.3% | 2 | 3 | — | 3 | 0% | -76.4% |
| 2026-09-01 | -30.8% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-31 | -16.0% | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | +3.1% |
| 2026-08-30 | -114.2% | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0% | -27.3% |
| 2026-08-29 | -16.6% | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 0% | -15.7% |
| 2026-08-28 | -125.9% | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 0% | -8.3% |
| 2026-08-27 | +16.5% | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0% | -48.2% |
| 2026-08-26 | +47.7% | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | +63.5% |
| 2026-08-24 | -91.8% | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | 100% | +18.5% |
| 2026-08-23 | +115.8% | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0% | -38.2% |
| 2026-08-22 | -131.4% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | +4.3% |
| 2026-08-21 | -39.3% | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | +8.8% |
| 2026-08-20 | -16.8% | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | +131.2% |
| 2026-08-19 | +10.0% | 5 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | -27.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | +25.7% | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 100% | +24.7% |
| 2026-08-17 | +13.7% | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | +26.7% |
| 2026-08-16 | -64.7% | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | -4.4% |
| 2026-08-15 | +6.9% | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 27% | -65.5% |
| 2026-08-14 | +115.8% | 8 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | -8.7% |
| 2026-08-13 | +19.0% | 9 | 15 | — | 15 | 0% | -263.4% |
| 2026-08-12 | -12.6% | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30% | -37.6% |